Mr. Sauter-Servaes, many cities are currently testing autonomous vehicles. How do you view this development?
It’s impossible to overstate the importance of what is happening. If autonomous driving is applied comprehensively, it will not be an evolution but a revolution. One can compare this change with the transition from the “dumbphone” to the smartphone: It has completely transformed our lives. But it is important that we use technology in a way that improves our quality of life.
What do you mean by that?
If all the drivers simply replace their private car with a self-driving model, we won’t have gained anything, on the contrary: Automatic driving opens up new target groups such as children and the elderly. The result would be even more traffic on the roads. We must prevent this scenario from taking place.
What is the alternative?
In order to exploit the potential of the new technology, society must change its mindset: The car-on-demand approach, i.e. a form of car-sharing for everyone, is currently being discussed at length. In combination with trip sharing, this would make sense.
How could this work? clog up
Car-on-demand means that nobody owns a private car. Self-driving cars pick up passengers either at home or at virtual stops. In the best-case scenario, multiple trip requests could be handled by a single vehicle.
And everybody would stop walking anywhere?
Naturally, this must not happen. City streets must be transformed from transit areas back into attractive recreational spaces. It is important that the space gained is used to make cities more accessible to pedestrians and cyclists.
Which spaces are you referring to?
Most parking lots would no longer be necessary, for example those along the roads. The reason being that the utilization of cars would be far higher due to ride and car sharing. This would mean fewer vehicles and in addition, these cars would spend much less time not in use. Today, a car is not driven 95 percent of the time. This is a complete waste of space. There is huge potential here, which we have to exploit.
But many people still want to own their own car – and to drive it themselves.
Certainly, society must first change its mindset, because one hundred years of car advertising have left their mark on us. We associate owning a car with freedom, status, and comfort. This is cemented in our heads and in our cities. This change will take a long time. But in the past, we also could not imagine that restaurants would ever become smoke-free. Who knows, maybe driving yourself will someday be viewed in the same way as smoking is now.
Vehicles driven by people clog up cities and endanger road users.
Why? Because it is also harmful?
Vehicles driven by people clog up cities and endanger road users. After all, 70 to 90 percent of all accidents are attributable to human error. Autonomous vehicles have a considerably better safety record: The computer never gets irritated and never uses the phone while driving.
Isn’t there room on the roads for everyone?
A mix of self-driving cars and conventional cars is problematic. Already today, the pilot projects show that many people get angry because the autonomous cars adhere strictly to the rules: It only ever drives as fast as allowed. In Arizona, there have even been cases where drivers have tried to force autonomous cars off the road. In mixed systems, the efficiency also decreases because autonomous cars can drive much closer together. However, it is conceivable that the infrastructure could be divided into separate networks for autonomous cars and for conventional vehicles.
Many people find self-driving cars scary. What if the car is hacked?
Of course, new developments usually come with new risks. But the danger of a hacker attack also exists with airplanes that have been covering long distances on autopilot for decades. If we allow ourselves to be discouraged by such risks, we can give up digitalization altogether.
What about data protection? The providers would know exactly when and where we travel.
This issue calls for regulation and good business models. It is conceivable, for example, that some providers could guarantee that all data is deleted after 24 hours, which would set them apart from the competition. But experience also shows: Whenever something makes life more comfortable, people tend to forget about data protection.
Will autonomous cars replace today's public transport?
No, at best the boundaries between public and private transport will become blurred. But on the major transport routes it will still make sense to bundle passengers in large vehicles such as trains.
What is the potential of autonomous mobility for freight transport?
The opportunities here are even more promising than in private transport because no emotions are involved. It’s a simple matter of calculation. Platooning is already being tested today: This means that several trucks drive in a convoy, but only the front truck is controlled by a driver. This is an intermediate stage on the path to complete automation.
This sounds like we will soon be surrounded by autonomous vehicles.
No, the development is still in the early stages. Some people believe that the first autonomous cars will be launched in a few years’ time. I think that is too optimistic. The technology and the necessary regulatory adjustments are just too complex. But we still have to prepare ourselves. We need a vision for the overall transport system in 2050. The technological answers are developing rapidly, now we have to ask the right questions. Because there’s one thing everybody agrees on: autonomous driving is coming.
Thomas Sauter-Servaes is responsible for the Transport Systems engineering degree course at the Zurich University of Applied Sciences (ZHAW). He also conducts research at the ZHAW School of Engineering, focusing on innovative services and business models in the field of mobility.